The US and the EU have set October 31st as a "hard deadline" for a finalized agreement on trading steel. Ending a five-year period of high tariffs (currently under suspension from the Biden administration), bilateral agreements on green steel, WTO compliance, and protectionism against Chinese exports are the four major issues on the agenda.
Major outlets have reported that progress on negotiations is faltering. US and EU officials have both signaled commitment to the original deadline, but extensions on bilateral trade negotiations are not unprecedented.
Resolves YES if major media outlets report that an agreement has been finalized on or before October 31st at midnight. Reporting may lag by a day or two, but the market will resolve YES as long as it is clear that the deadline was met. Resolves NO if major media outlets report that an agreement was met after October 31st at midnight, or if talks adjourn without an agreement.
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If whatever gets announced on October 20th provides a lasting framework for the major issues (e.g. carbon emissions) and officially rolls back the steel war tariffs that are currently under temporary suspension, I'll resolve YES.
Is there going to be an announcement on the 20th, and do we know it isn't going to do that?
(arguably that I can't tell says something about my likelihood of profiting in this market lol)
@jacksonpolack I suppose it's still technically possible that a bilateral agreement on a 'lasting framework' could be announced on the 20th, but (as of about five hours ago) Politico is reporting that the deadline for an agreement has been moved to January 1st.
The summit on the 20th has been on Biden's calendar for a while, so it seems extremely unlikely that negotiators would need or request a two-month extension if the talks had a chance of wrapping up in time for a major announcement on the 20th.
Leaders of the European Union and the U.S. are seeking to announce an interim agreement at an Oct. 20 summit on steel and aluminium trade that would avert the re-imposition of Trump-era tariffs on transatlantic commerce (source)
I assume an "interim" agreement is not a "finalized" agreement required for a YES?
I interpret the term 'finalize' to apply to the agreement itself, rather than the contents of the agreement.
The deadline, as described in this article, seems to be a deadline for an agreement. Not for a 'non-interim agreement'. I think if the agreement is done by Oct 30, that counts as finalizing it. You can finalize an interim agreement.
I dunno though. I vaguely guess that the trade agreement negotiators would interpret this to be an agreement that meets the deadline they set.
I think we're probably still too early to resolve.
If whatever gets announced on October 20th amounts to a deadline extension (i.e., we're putting enough temporary measures in place to extend the tariff suspension until we've had enough time to figure this out), I'll resolve NO.
If whatever gets announced on October 20th provides a lasting framework for the major issues (e.g. carbon emissions) and officially rolls back the steel war tariffs that are currently under temporary suspension, I'll resolve YES.
I understand that there's some inherent subjectivity here - if the result is ambiguous enough to justify it, I'll resolve N/A after October 31st.
@Hyperstition After about 20 minutes of googling and zero domain knowledge, I can only speculate it doesn’t look the there will be a rolling back of any tariffs, and an interim agreement suggests at best, extending a suspension of the tariffs until a finalized deal. I speculate if the finalized deal were to be put in place it would happen after 2024 — as there are political reasons why this might hurt Biden’s re-election chances (https://www.ft.com/content/42d968e5-cb13-4ccb-9f93-b1a321303a14 ) and to a layman, a reasonable excuse to delay (carbon emissions study not done)).
Carbon emissions for the industry have not yet been studied and as a request for the study was issued only in June (with a deadline for January 2025 — such a deadline agrees with the above speculation):
It is going to take some time for such a study to complete (likely not before next year as the ITC is accepting written comment until June 2024: https://www.msci.org/itc-releases-additional-information-on-steel-and-aluminum-ghg-emissions-study/)
There a closely related question on the RANGE crowd forecasting site:
I wouldn’t put a huge weight on the actual probability there since it’s very slow to update on new information. But the site differs from other crowd forecasting sites in especially targeting policy people rather than layman. Most people there seem to have strong opinions on the EU-US Trade and Technology Council. Also every forecast there has to have a written rationale which you can read if you make an account.
The main reason I’m betting this down is the short fuse. The October deadline on an agreement is kind of artificial, with the real one being end-of-year.
It’s too late to influence this question, but as a fun fact: US government shutdowns do kind of stop international negotiations: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-shutdown-would-hinder-critical-trade-functions-us-government