The US and the EU have set October 31st as a "hard deadline" for a finalized agreement on trading steel. Ending a five-year period of high tariffs (currently under suspension from the Biden administration), bilateral agreements on green steel, WTO compliance, and protectionism against Chinese exports are the four major issues on the agenda.

Major outlets have reported that progress on negotiations is faltering. US and EU officials have both signaled commitment to the original deadline, but extensions on bilateral trade negotiations are not unprecedented.

Resolves YES if major media outlets report that an agreement has been finalized on or before October 31st at midnight. Reporting may lag by a day or two, but the market will resolve YES as long as it is clear that the deadline was met. Resolves NO if major media outlets report that an agreement was met after October 31st at midnight, or if talks adjourn without an agreement.