Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the tariff suspension on ground beef imports announced by President Donald Trump on August 21, 2026, is officially implemented and remains in effect for a continuous period of at least 90 days from its official start date.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Key Definitions and Rules:

• Implementation: To be considered "implemented," a formal Executive Order, presidential proclamation, or federal agency directive (such as from U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the USDA) must be officially published to execute the waiver of out-of-quota tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef.

• Duration: Once the tariff suspension's official effective date begins, it must remain continuously in force for at least 90 days. If the policy is revoked by the administration, struck down or permanently enjoined by a court, or nullified by Congress before completing 90 days, the market will resolve to NO.

• Deadline for Action: If no formal executive action or federal regulation implementing the tariff suspension is published by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

• Verification: Resolution will be determined using official government registries, such as the Federal Register, or major financial and political news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Politico).

Background

On August 21, 2026, President Donald Trump announced on social media that he had concluded a deal to suspend out-of-quota tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef for 90 days. The administration's stated goal is to combat high food inflation, as retail ground beef prices have soared to historical highs amid a domestic cattle herd that has shrunk to its lowest level in decades.

The plan, which Trump indicated would lower beef prices by 25%, has drawn significant pushback from domestic livestock producers and agricultural organizations like the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA). Critics argue that importing large volumes of cheaper foreign beef will harm struggling domestic ranchers and disrupt the rebuilding of U.S. cattle herds. While the temporary relief has been announced, the formalized executive order and administrative actions required to execute the tariff waiver have yet to be fully implemented.

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