Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?
88
8.2kṀ260k
resolved Jan 1
100%81%
Zenbu
0.2%Other
2%
eharding
0.2%
TheHamsterMan
0.2%
teafortwo
0.2%
[BasedCosmopolitan]Prof
0.2%
Nornagest
0.2%
Teemochu
0.2%
Theodidactus
0.2%
hateiskawaii
0.2%
ZorbaTHut
0.2%
Cypren
0.2%
Asinar
0.2%
CharlesF
0.2%
DrJavelin
0.2%
LosTiburon
0.2%
Starke Hathaway
0.2%
smorc
0.2%
TheSkeward
0.2%
Scott Alexander
I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user. Point of clarification: I added some plausible-seeming names to get the market started but this should not be taken as any indication that the next admin must be among them.
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When is this going to resolve?
@IsaacKing January 1, 2023 ofc.
I concede and congratulate the winner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkCgwK_CoXo
https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/984554237352607774 Implicitly "if Zenbu is admin on market close": """ I will EITHER: - resolve Yes for Honourary's market OR - try to find a way to resolve as a merge/proportionally, maybe with some sort of PROB distribution proportional to the percentage of each at closing """ ...barring e.g. MM introducing a fiat power to merge duplicate bet entries. Point is, if you want to bet on Zenbu starting now, probably buy on Honourary's entry.
@TestTest This is a duplicate of Honourary's answer and should not be rewarded.
@Adam There's few other duplicates too, like Celestia for example. A merge function would be nice.
@TheSkeward
this is insider trading
Bought a little bit of everyone eharding in order to short. We definitely need an easier way to short fr questions :/
Shorting this answer: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-eharding-be-the-administrator
It'd be surprising!
I swear it's not me who keeps manipulating the results in my favor. But I have to hand it to him regardless. Also, see my comment here: https://manifold.markets/abk/will-the-astralcodexten-discord-adm
I don't think this is going to happen. I deleted my Discord account and really don't want to make a new one. But I'm curious how unlikely the rest of you think it is.
zenbu zenbu zenbu
Let's goooo
As "WTF, definitely not eharding" bet
poster of the year *and* best effortposter, that's gotta count for something
guess I get M$20 to play with
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFteJlDJvqY Alright, selling my shares.
TWI also knows how to run all the bots.
TWI is Verified. Everyone else is not. QED.
I have insider knowledge that it is not going to be eharding and I am contributing to the collective wisdom of this market see I am a prosocial force for reason
Update: Skeward disallows this bet I guess
Resolves to yes if a person nobody has bet any M$ on gets chosen as administrator
surely 0% is too low?

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