Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

480

Ṁ260K

resolved Jan 1

ALL

eharding

0.0%

TheHamsterMan

0.0%

teafortwo

0.2%

[BasedCosmopolitan]Prof

0.0%

Nornagest

0.0%

Teemochu

0.0%

Theodidactus

0.0%

hateiskawaii

0.0%

ZorbaTHut

0.0%

Cypren

0.0%

Asinar

0.0%

CharlesF

0.0%

DrJavelin

0.0%

LosTiburon

0.0%

Starke Hathaway

0.0%

smorc

0.1%

TheSkeward

0.0%

Scott Alexander

0.0%

DFP

0.0%

Celestia

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user. Point of clarification: I added some plausible-seeming names to get the market started but this should not be taken as any indication that the next admin must be among them.

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When is this going to resolve?

@IsaacKing January 1, 2023 ofc.

I concede and congratulate the winner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkCgwK_CoXo

https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/984554237352607774 Implicitly "if Zenbu is admin on market close": """ I will EITHER: - resolve Yes for Honourary's market OR - try to find a way to resolve as a merge/proportionally, maybe with some sort of PROB distribution proportional to the percentage of each at closing """ ...barring e.g. MM introducing a fiat power to merge duplicate bet entries. Point is, if you want to bet on Zenbu starting now, probably buy on Honourary's entry.

answered

zenbu

@TestTest This is a duplicate of Honourary's answer and should not be rewarded.

answered

zenbu

@Adam There's few other duplicates too, like Celestia for example. A merge function would be nice.

answered

Nornagest

bought Ṁ500

@TheSkeward

answered

Nornagest

bought Ṁ597

this is insider trading

bought Ṁ2 of Celestia

Bought a little bit of everyone eharding in order to short. We definitely need an easier way to short fr questions :/

sold Ṁ1 of eharding

Shorting this answer: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-eharding-be-the-administrator

bought Ṁ1 of Adam

It'd be surprising!

bought Ṁ1 of eharding

I swear it's not me who keeps manipulating the results in my favor. But I have to hand it to him regardless. Also, see my comment here: https://manifold.markets/abk/will-the-astralcodexten-discord-adm

bought Ṁ100 of Alex Power

I don't think this is going to happen. I deleted my Discord account and really don't want to make a new one. But I'm curious how unlikely the rest of you think it is.

bought Ṁ1 of Zenbu

zenbu zenbu zenbu

bought Ṁ50 of Celestia

Let's goooo

bought Ṁ20 of Nornagest

As "WTF, definitely not eharding" bet

bought Ṁ10 of Theodidactus

poster of the year *and* best effortposter, that's gotta count for something

bought Ṁ10 of Theodidactus

guess I get M$20 to play with

sold Ṁ958 of eharding

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFteJlDJvqY Alright, selling my shares.

bought Ṁ69 of TWI

TWI also knows how to run all the bots.

bought Ṁ69 of TWI

TWI is Verified. Everyone else is not. QED.

bought Ṁ2,500 of Nornagest

I have insider knowledge that it is not going to be eharding and I am contributing to the collective wisdom of this market see I am a prosocial force for reason