Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

Plus

Ṁ260k

resolved Jan 1

100%81%

Zenbu

0.2%Other

eharding

0.2%

TheHamsterMan

0.2%

teafortwo

0.2%

[BasedCosmopolitan]Prof

0.2%

Nornagest

0.2%

Teemochu

0.2%

Theodidactus

0.2%

hateiskawaii

0.2%

ZorbaTHut

0.2%

Cypren

0.2%

Asinar

0.2%

CharlesF

0.2%

DrJavelin

0.2%

LosTiburon

0.2%

Starke Hathaway

0.2%

smorc

0.2%

TheSkeward

0.2%

Scott Alexander

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user. Point of clarification: I added some plausible-seeming names to get the market started but this should not be taken as any indication that the next admin must be among them.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#ACX

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

70 Holders

1.2k Trades

Sort by:

When is this going to resolve?

@IsaacKing January 1, 2023 ofc.

I concede and congratulate the winner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkCgwK_CoXo

https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/984554237352607774 Implicitly "if Zenbu is admin on market close": """ I will EITHER: - resolve Yes for Honourary's market OR - try to find a way to resolve as a merge/proportionally, maybe with some sort of PROB distribution proportional to the percentage of each at closing """ ...barring e.g. MM introducing a fiat power to merge duplicate bet entries. Point is, if you want to bet on Zenbu starting now, probably buy on Honourary's entry.

@TestTest This is a duplicate of Honourary's answer and should not be rewarded.

@Adam There's few other duplicates too, like Celestia for example. A merge function would be nice.

@TheSkeward

this is insider trading

Bought a little bit of everyone eharding in order to short. We definitely need an easier way to short fr questions :/

Shorting this answer: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-eharding-be-the-administrator

It'd be surprising!

I swear it's not me who keeps manipulating the results in my favor. But I have to hand it to him regardless. Also, see my comment here: https://manifold.markets/abk/will-the-astralcodexten-discord-adm

I don't think this is going to happen. I deleted my Discord account and really don't want to make a new one. But I'm curious how unlikely the rest of you think it is.

zenbu zenbu zenbu

Let's goooo

As "WTF, definitely not eharding" bet

poster of the year *and* best effortposter, that's gotta count for something

guess I get M$20 to play with

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFteJlDJvqY Alright, selling my shares.

TWI also knows how to run all the bots.

TWI is Verified. Everyone else is not. QED.

I have insider knowledge that it is not going to be eharding and I am contributing to the collective wisdom of this market see I am a prosocial force for reason

Update: Skeward disallows this bet I guess

Resolves to yes if a person nobody has bet any M$ on gets chosen as administrator

surely 0% is too low?

Related questions

Related questions