Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES when the Air Force has completed upgrades to the Qatari Boeing 747-8 and Trump uses it as Air Force One. Resolution requires documented evidence of Trump boarding and flying on the aircraft in an official presidential capacity. The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends before the plane is operational, or if the plane is permanently decommissioned or transferred without being used by Trump.
Background
The Trump administration accepted a $400 million luxury Boeing 747 from Qatar, described as a "flying palace". Two new Boeing 747-8 planes are being customized to become the next generation of Air Force One under a $3.9 billion deal announced during Trump's first term, but the project has been marred by setbacks and the aircraft aren't expected for several more years. The Qatari jet is currently standing by at San Antonio, Texas airport, awaiting a specialized overhaul.
Considerations
Experts say the plane would take years to rework to meet current standards for Air Force One. Several experts estimate the retrofitting could cost up to a billion dollars. There is concern that Trump might roll back security requirements to accelerate the timeline, and the plane could potentially have listening devices or malware since it has been in a foreign country for over a decade.
Update 2026-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The plane must be used as a permanent Air Force One (not just a one-time or temporary use), and upgrades must be completed before resolution.
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@HillaryClinton Or was "Jan-June 2027" supposed to be "Jan-June 2028"? Since there's also "Before July 2027"