Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the option that matches the final certified margin in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election between Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel. The margin will be calculated as the percentage point difference between the winner and loser. Resolution will use infinite decimal places (e.g., 9.9999% would resolve as "Crawford 9% - 10%" if Crawford wins by that margin).

If Crawford wins, the market resolves to the option that contains her winning margin. If Schimel wins, the market resolves N/A as all options assume a Crawford victory.

Background

The Wisconsin Supreme Court election between Susan Crawford (Democrat-backed) and Brad Schimel (Republican-backed) is a highly contested race with significant implications for the ideological balance of the court. The outcome will influence key issues including abortion access and voting rights in Wisconsin.

Crawford has received support from Democratic organizations, while Schimel has been endorsed by Republicans, including former President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election saw a winning margin of approximately 11 percentage points, which may provide some historical context for this race.

Wisconsin's electoral geography typically shows Democrats performing strongly in urban areas like Milwaukee and Dane counties, while Republicans tend to do better in rural areas and suburban regions like Waukesha County.