In January of 2026, Manifold made a new loan system that charges 0.03% daily on loans. This equates to over 10% APR, offset by 5% interest, so annet 5%.
Previously they charged 0% interest, which allowed users to bet long term, and get a loan so there was incentive to bet on long term markets.
Does this interest rate make long term markets unprofitable? I define long term as anything over a year.
1,000I'm seeing that the system is:
- you can get 0% on the golden chest, like before
- On top of that, you can also get these 10% annual loans on request
Source: Clicking around in the interface. The new 'loan' button that shows up if you click your name makes these claims.
- Bets still make 5% interest
Source
So... I think at a basic level it's equally as viable as the old one because the old one is still around; it's just that now you can also take loans, so I think relative investment in long-term markets will decrease not increase (because some people who like debt will make more short-term bets using debt).
Makes very long term markets an automatic loss if I understand it correctly. Haven't read about it since the announcement and don't care to keep up with the constant changes. I just know I'm not taking any more loans.