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MANIFOLD
Government shutdown lasts 45+ days (Nov. 14+)?
234
Ṁ1kṀ84k
resolved Nov 13
Resolved
NO

45th day is November 14th

Resolves no if government reopens the 13th or before.

Resolves yes if the government is still closed on the 14th at 12:01am ET.

Resolution will be based on the timing of the president signing the bill.

Market context
Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
Gov shutdown
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bought Ṁ50 YES

Even if the House votes to reopen immediately, the President could easily sit on it for a day before signing any bill.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@lousyd I’m doubtful. Doing so goes against the narrative. I expect a victory speech from the White House as early as tonight.

Yall, even if the spending bill advances in the senate tonight mike johnson would have to call back the house to vote on it there. Very possible either the bill does not pass in the senate, or it takes 5+ days to advance in the house.

@EliH I ended up choosing a very good date. Lots of swings.

The description is in conflict with the title

@HillaryClinton yes, can you please make sure the description & title match? I'm not sure what I'm betting on here (but would like to bet)

45+ days
!=
Yes if nov 13 or before.

@DannyqnOht apologies. I had a typo. It's good now.

@HillaryClinton Much clearer now - still one remaining typo (I think you can just remove "no otherwise" but I understand what's going on, thanks!

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