MANIFOLD
Will the May 1, 2026 No Kings general strike be estimated at over 8 million U.S. participants?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ71
May 4
19%
chance

Resolution criteria:

  • YES if published coverage estimates total U.S. participation in May 1, 2026 No Kings general strike actions at strictly more than 8,000,000 participants.

  • NO otherwise.

Source hierarchy (in order):

  1. AP, Reuters, or NYT numeric estimate by May 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

  2. If none of the above publish a numeric estimate, use median of Washington Post, CNN, NBC News numeric estimates (if available)

  3. If no qualifying numeric estimate is available by deadline, resolve NO

Notes:

  • Count only U.S. participation estimates tied to May 1, 2026 No Kings general strike actions.

  • If multiple estimates from the same source, use the latest estimate before deadline.

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