In the event Sam Altman does create an OpenAI competitor, what valuation does it raise at?
7
158
620
resolved Dec 1
ResolvedN/A
8%
Company is created but doesn't raise -> less than $10m
9%
$10m -> less than $500m
8%
$500m -> less than $1b
24%
$1b -> less than $5b
29%
$5b -> less than $10b
12%
$10b -> less than $50b
7%
$50b -> less than $100b
4%
$100b or more

This prediction market pertains to the first publicized funding round of [unnamed future Sam Altman OpenAI competitor]. A "funding round" is defined as any formal investment round, including angel, seed, or Series A rounds, but excluding debt financing. For instruments like SAFEs, the valuation cap will be considered as the valuation figure. The market will be resolved based on the post-money valuation as reported by credible sources including, but not limited to, official press releases, financial filings, and reliable news outlets. The market will resolve within 6 months from 18th November 2023, and if no company matching the description of an OpenAI competitor is created or no funding round occurs within this period, the market will be voided.

m = million

b = billion

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ15 of $5b -> less than $10b YES

Ah already betted but is this for the first public round? Should specify as I imagine there would need to be a pre-seed round most likely.

@LukeShadwell

The first significant round of funding that is formally announced and publicly documented, irrespective of whether the company has previously gone through a pre-seed round or not

bought Ṁ2 of $10m -> less than $500m YES

@HenryE Thanks I really didn’t read properly, my bad

@LukeShadwell Thanks for taking part in the market!

@HenryE It’s a great question!