Have searches for ChatGPT peaked this year?
159
1.9kṀ43k
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves NO if according to google trends, either searches for "chatgpt" or "chat gpt" (case insensitive) surpass their respective maximums before 2024. Otherwise, resolves YES.

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Just surpassed its maximum.

@Pandurevich can confirm, this resolves NO

@Henry641d For worldwide searches, or just the US?

We are so close! Full-week non-extrapolated results show global searches at 99% of peak value.

predictedYES

@ByrneHobart What? Why do your results look different from mine?

predictedYES

@EliTyre Oh. Because you're looking at worldwide, and I was looking at US.

It is peaking out again (Edited: See the comments below)

@2eb7 The partial period extrapolations are very noisy. If you choose a shorter time period, it goes away. I have no idea why Google doesn't handle extrapolation better, but lots of investors have gotten burned by looking at those before.

@ByrneHobart Hmm, it seems you're right. TIL. Thanks.

Oh, this is a useful market

predictedNO

(Double)

  • "chatgpt" 97% of previous maximum for last week in Google trend and increasing fast

  • Next weeks: chatgpt will support audio and image outputs

  • OpenAI now have a competitive image generation model (Dall-e 3)

  • OpenAI said they succeeded at managing the new risks from image generation

  • More people adopting chatgpt at work, coming back from summer break and having their manager giving them the authorisation

The current level of interest is 64% or 55% out of 100%, depending on the search term. I believe that interest will continue to decline over time.


The answer is a qualified “No”…

predictedNO

@Meta_C No doubt, there will be searches for “GPT-5” and beyond before the end of this year.

(perhaps unfortunately) "chatgpt" has become a generic term for LLMs amongst the general public

@loafenson That's true

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