If "release" e.g. January or March 2024 this resolves NO.

H/t @brubsby for below conditions for YES/NO:
Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.

List of events qualify to resolve this market YES:
Released to the public
Open Beta
Paid but otherwise open service
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released

Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users

List of events that do not qualify to resolve this market YES:
Leaked weights that are useless
Closed Beta with no proof of user numbers
Closed Beta with <10,000 users
Limited researcher only release

List of events that immediately resolve this market NO:
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction
Project cancelled
Not released by end of month
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks

January/March markets below for easy access: