Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Question

Resolution Criteria:

Oil blockade:

Defined as a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports compared to pre-blockade. Must be effectively imposed, confirmed by either an official U.S. announcement, or by at least two independent major outlets. Any of these will count: naval blockade, tanker quarentine or a seizure of Kharg Island, so long as it causes an impact similar to what we saw in Venezuela on quantifiable information (tanker count or export volume in pre blockade vs post blockade week, month or bimester. Half order of magnitude basis. Always using comparable metric). In the absence of such metrics, so long as it is widespread enough to be constantly seen, reported or announced, it will count. So long as these conditions are fulfilled, will resolve as YES. In the case of kharg island and no verifiable metric, the US must hold it at least for one month without letting Iran use it.

Will resolve as NO in case those conditions aren't fulfilled by the end of the year: there's no announced or reported naval blockade/quarentine, no significant disruption, kharg island isn't seized.

In any case, common sense will prevail. I won't bet on this market and will resolve as objectively as possible. Will give one week after market close for any objections to my proposed resolution.

Regime change:

Will resolve based on this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026)Market Outcomes: The four possible resolutions are: (1) Oil blockade occurs AND regime falls, (2) Oil blockade occurs AND regime remains, (3) No oil blockade AND regime falls, (4) No oil blockade AND regime remains.

Background

Following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026, oil and LNG exports were stranded, causing Brent Crude to surge past $120 per barrel. Up to 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through the Kharg terminal, which can load 10 supertankers at once, making it Iran's critical economic chokepoint.

In February 2026, the US imposed new sanctions on 30 individuals, companies, and vessels connected with Iran oil, and Iran's oil exports declined sharply at the start of 2026, with tanker-tracking data showing pressure on Tehran's most important economic lifeline under renewed US sanctions. The Islamic Republic enters 2026 confronting its most severe legitimacy crisis since the 1979 revolution, with nationwide protests triggered by currency collapse and economic mismanagement evolving into a broader challenge to regime authority across all thirty-one provinces.

Considerations

The Islamic Republic's government has reestablished control over the country after massive nationwide protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse, though the convergence of economic breakdown, strategic military reversals, sanctions pressure, and succession uncertainty creates conditions qualitatively different from previous challenges. In March 2026, US air strikes targeted military sites on Kharg Island, including storage facilities for submarine mines and missiles, but left the oil terminal unscathed, suggesting deliberate restraint on targeting oil infrastructure despite its strategic value. Midterm elections, the unpopularity of war, possibility of gasoline and lng price surges will possibly deter Trump from taking such decision. Energy exports account for roughly 10~25% of Iran's GDP, 25%+ of Iran's budget (half of this oil revenue goes directly to the IRGC). Due to the multiplier effect, 20% to 50% of Iran's economy likely directly depends on oil revenues or the domestic consumption it generates. Total or partial loss of energy trade could collapse Iran's economy and render the state incapable of financing its armed forces, public services. This could generate revolts, desertions, or even surrender, dumping gasoline into the widespread social unrest seen in Iran before and during the war, potentially increasing the likelyhood of regime change.

This description was partially generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Oil blockade, regime stays, followed by Oil blockade, regime changes and No oil blockade, regime changes are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of May 1, 2026).