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MANIFOLD
Chicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.
10
Ṁ1kṀ2.5k
2027
8%
chance

Resolves as YES if the City of Chicago's tax receipts decline YoY for three years in a row but the cause is not tax cuts.

(Specifically, tax revenue at EOY 2024 has to be lower than EOY 2023, and the same is true of EOY 2025 and 2026, while taxation rates and policies remain the same.)

Market context
Politics
United States
City government
Chicago
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It appears revenue went up for 2025 vs 2024:

https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/fin/supp_info/comprehensive_annualfinancialstatements/2025-financial-statements.html#docaccess-dd4a189261c30643c1aacdd24c58c46c

You say taxation policies stay the same but what if net taxation went up but revenue still declined?

I think it would be correct to resolve it as YES in that case. I'm trying to measure whether people are leaving the city, causing a decline in tax revenue.