Will my daughter have a puppy by her 10th birthday (in Aug 2022)
14%
chance
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The market resolves to Yes if my nine-year-old daughter has a dog on or before her tenth birthday in August. The market will resolve at the end of August. From her lips:
"I ask every day but my dad doesn't want to say yes. My dad is allergic to cats and dogs. My mom says no, but she doesn't have a strong opinion. Our apartment is about 82 square meters in Tokyo. There are parks around for dogs, and a very big park about 30 minutes walk from here. I hope to get a Beagle but any type would be fine. Puppies are so fuzzy and so cute and they're the best companion you could ever get (even though cats are nice too). Seriously, are you going to type everything I say? Haha. I would give 50% of the work of taking care of the dog to my parents."
Nathan Braun bought M$15 of YES12 days ago
If she's asking every day I bet she gets it. Wouldn't get a beagle though.
Undox is betting YES at 24% 12 days ago
@NathanBraun I recommend a Maltese/Toy Poodle.
Undox is betting YES at 24% 12 days ago
(cross breed, not one of each!)
Undox sold M$17 of NO13 days ago
Source: lived in about ~50sqm apartment with 2 adults, 2 dogs, 2 kids for 2 weeks, with similar setup - dog parks in the near vicinity. It is not un-doable.
Undox bought M$40 of YES13 days ago
The existence of this question to me implies they are considering to some extent buying a dog. I still think a low probability is warranted because of being in a big city, no house or back garden, but then a lot of people have dogs in cities (usually smaller ones I presume) and if you are willing to take it for a walk to that local park twice a day it is doable.
SirSalty bought M$600 of NO13 days ago
Both parents dont want it and they live in a small house, the park is far away and theres no way a 10 year old girl can look after it by herself.