
By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?
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Epoch's recent report predicts that 2e29 training runs will likely be feasible by 2030.
Resolves YES if:
- A credible source publicly confirms that an AI model was trained using at least 2e29 FLOP
- A reasonable analysis estimates that a model was trained using at least 2e29 FLOP.
Resolves N/A if:
- Reasonable analyses disagree about whether there was ever an AI model that was trained using more or less than 2e29 FLOP.
-There are compelling but questionable rumors of a training run that used at least 2e29 FLOP. (Compelling enough to be covered in major news outlets, questionable enough that it's not widely accepted as true)
Resolves NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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