By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?
➕
Plus
7
Ṁ810
2031
76%
chance

Epoch's recent report predicts that 2e29 training runs will likely be feasible by 2030.

Resolves YES if:
- A credible source publicly confirms that an AI model was trained using at least 2e29 FLOP
- A reasonable analysis estimates that a model was trained using at least 2e29 FLOP.


Resolves N/A if:
- Reasonable analyses disagree about whether there was ever an AI model that was trained using more or less than 2e29 FLOP.
-There are compelling but questionable rumors of a training run that used at least 2e29 FLOP. (Compelling enough to be covered in major news outlets, questionable enough that it's not widely accepted as true)

Resolves NO otherwise.

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How does this resolve if there is an ongoing run that is predicted to be >2e29 FLOP once it finishes?

@vluzko Great question, I didn’t think of that. I think that with the way I’ve worded things so far, I’ve gotta say that that wouldn’t count

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