Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the political party Podemos wins strictly more than 3 seats (i.e., at least 4 seats) in the Spanish Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) in the November 29, 2026 Spanish general election.

If Podemos wins 3 or fewer seats (0, 1, 2, or 3), this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined based on official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (Ministerio del Interior) via its official election results portal (or the Boletín Oficial del Estado / Junta Electoral Central).

• A seat counts for Podemos if the elected deputy is officially affiliated with Podemos as a member of the party.

• If Podemos runs as part of an electoral coalition or joint list, only deputies formally designated as Podemos party members on the coalition slates will count toward the total.

Background

In the 2023 Spanish general election, Podemos contested the vote as part of the broader left-wing coalition Sumar, securing five seats within the coalition before four of its deputies split from Sumar in December 2023 to move into the mixed parliamentary group (Grupo Mixto). After early elections were triggered for late 2026 following legislative stalemates, polling aggregations and seat projections placed Podemos around 2 to 3 seats, creating high uncertainty around whether the party can sustain a larger congressional presence.

This description was generated by AI.