The USGS tracks non-earthquake seismic events here: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
This market resolves to YES if there is a ≥4.4 magnitude non-earthquake seismic event that occurs by April 1, 2024, according to the USGS. The event can be anywhere in the world. In the past, non-earthquake seismic events that have had this magnitude include volcanic eruptions, explosions, nuclear explosions, mine collapses, quarry blasts, rock bursts, and "other events."
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@EstMtz According to the USGS website linked in the description, there have been 82 non-earthquake seismic events since 2000 with magnitude ≥4.4. (So like ~3.4 per year on average). But some of those are linked to the same event. For instance, there were 9 volcanism-related quakes near Saipan over the course of two days in September.
@Hadean Thanks, after using the website I bought No thinking above 4.4 seemed unlikely from now to April, but now I'm remembering the Iceland volcano. In your opinion does the Iceland volcano have the potential to produce over 4.4 magnitude?
@EstMtz My intuition would probably be no -- according to that website, there haven't been any non-earthquake seismic events with magnitude > 3.0 in Iceland since at least 2000.