MANIFOLD
Claude outages caused by the U.S. Government?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ538
2027
14%
chance

Resolves YES if there is credible reporting or other reliable information indicating that any Claude outage occurring between Feb 25 and March 6, 2026 (inclusive) was caused by, directed by, or occurred through actions of the U.S. government.

Resolves NO if no such credible indication exists by the resolution date.

I will use a good-faith consensus of credible reporting and relevant public statements from Anthropic to resolve.

Resolves on March 6, 2027. I will not trade in this market.

  • Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The U.S. government's actions must be intentional to cause the outage. Outages resulting from indirect effects (such as people voluntarily migrating from other services to Claude) do not count toward YES resolution.

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are outages caused by people voluntarily migrating from chatgpt to claude counted for this? or is the spirit of the question about the government intentionally causing a degradation of claude's service?

@2b3o4o The degradation would have to be intentional to count, outages from people migrating would not.

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