Finland joins NATO in 2022
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แน€220
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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predicted NO

This can resolve.

sold แน€9 of NO

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/09/22/u-s-ambassador-finland-and-sweden-in-nato-by-christmas-00058404

sold แน€9 of YES
predicted YES

A progress tracker on the NATO website

bought แน€10 of NO
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/PedroMonteiro/will-filnland-join-nato-until-the-e
predicted NO
Applying to join is a separate question.
predicted NO
Very confused by this. Would be helpful to have clarification on whether applying for membership counts!
bought แน€20 of YES
I'm placing money on YES in the expectation that applying for membership will count.
bought แน€50 of YES
Majority of Finns now favor NATO membership (https://www.ft.com/content/83deaf3e-6db9-43dd-a2dc-5e9493265c2d).
bought แน€1 of NO
Thanks for catching that. I've fixed the date.
sold แน€5 of NO
Unless I'm missing something, this market closes in six days, but 2022 has quite a few more months left in it after that. How will you handle this?
bought แน€10 of NO
nah, but I could imagine them starting the application process

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