Will there be a new (non-Sweden) NATO member before 2026?
13
50
1k
2026
17%
chance

A new country must become a full member of the alliance for this to count. Which country that is is irrelevant, even if it is a new country that has seceded from a current member.

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Potential candidates…

Bosnia - unlikely due to SR/Serbia entanglement risk

Ireland - low popular support to end neutrality, could change if there was some kind of Incident with Russia

Austria/Switzerland - probably same as Ireland but with even greater costs to dropping neutrality

Cyprus/Malta - would need some kind of geopol catalyst in the mediterranean

Ukraine/Moldova - No due to Russia war risk

Georgia/Azerbaijan - No due to lack of US appetite

Mexico - weirdly seems like one of the more plausible routes if it suited domestic player’s agenda

misc Asia/Pacific members - would take a few more years to cook up a strategic shift like this

any I’m missing?