Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, credible global employment data indicates that the number of jobs created due to artificial intelligence (AI) exceeds the number of jobs eliminated by AI. The primary source for resolution will be reports from the International Labour Organization (ILO) or similar authoritative bodies. If no such data is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

AI's impact on employment is multifaceted. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that nearly 40% of global jobs are exposed to AI, with advanced economies facing higher exposure due to the prevalence of cognitive-task-oriented jobs. (imf.org) While AI has the potential to automate certain tasks, it also creates new roles and industries, leading to a complex net effect on employment.

Considerations

• Sectoral Variations: AI's impact varies across sectors. For instance, the retail sector has seen significant automation in roles like cashiers and inventory management, while technology sectors have experienced job growth in AI development and maintenance.

• Geographical Differences: Developed economies with high labor costs and aging populations may adopt AI more aggressively, potentially leading to higher job displacement rates compared to developing economies.

• Data Availability: Comprehensive global data on AI-induced job creation and elimination may be limited or delayed, affecting the timely resolution of this market.