Will Donald Trump become the first dictator of the United States before 2030?
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Plus
61
Ṁ26k
2029
30%
chance

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks at 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99%, resolution will be YES.

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Even if Trump becomes a dictator, the market won't go to 99% for any extended period of time. This will never resolve YES

bought Ṁ613 NO

The title of this market is very misleading. The resolution criteria have nothing to do with Trump.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Trump becoming a dictator is far more likely than this ever going to 99 ( and it'll only go to 1 if he dies)

I have changed the resolution criteria. The market now resolves NO if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 1% (instead of below 1%) and YES if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99% (instead of above 99%).

@GreenComp, could you either N/A this or change the resolution criteria?

As of the recent rule revisions, this market cannot resolve, because probabilities outside the range of 1% to 99% no longer are tradeable on Yes/No questions.

So if we legally are not allowed to say that President-for-Life Trump is a dictator, this will resolve NO?

@HarrisonNathan US rules don't apply abroad.

@BrunoParga I guess it would resolve based on how many traders are from the US and forced to buy NO then.

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES.

bought Ṁ80 YES

Wish there was more clarification about the resolution criteria. What does a dictatorship entail? No more elections? Supreme executive power?

@DavidDavidson "I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks below 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%, resolution will be YES."

a bit weird as it opens up for manipulation - but that's the resolution criteria.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I naturally interpret this as meaning "more power than FDR", who some people say acted like a dictator. But "enough power to serve three terms" seems like another reasonable standard.

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