Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 5. The sentence so far is: "Manifold will always predict..."
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Welcome to the Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment day 5.

This is an experiment to see if Manifold Next Word Prediction Model can generate a coherent response to the prompt, "write a ten word sentence".

Over the last 4 days I created markets to predict the next word. So far the response is, "Manifold will always predict..."

Over the next six days I will create a new market each day to predict the next word in the sentence.

Please add what you think the next word should be and/or vote up the best next word.

Please note, this will resolve to the highest scoring word - it will not resolve to the "Other" that means "an unspecified answer", but anyone may add "other" if the think that should be the next word.

If successful, I will run a series of markets to determine what the prompt should be in experiment 2.

Thank you for participating.

Btw, anything you can do to increase visibility and/or participation would be greatly appreciated.

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bought Ṁ300 NO

How the hell did I lose everything I put into Other/NO? Was there a bug or did you resolve Other to YES?

@Kronopath your other shares got put into the new options created after you bet. That's how the default other option works on manifold, whenever a new option is created the liquidity and shares get split into it. You should only bet NO on other if you think one of the already existing options will be chosen.

Then I did in fact misunderstand how these markets work. Sigh. Thanks for the explanation.

@Kronopath Ya it can be confusing because markets can also have an "other" option that is just a normal option. Look out for this i symbol to tell if it's a special other that new options will be split out of:

@Tumbles i didnt know this either ty

Thank God Seinfeld GIF by HULU

my heart

Me trying to win whalebait without waking up 42irrationalist

In the art of foretelling the next word, that is the word yet unspoken, men have ever faltered, alone or in company.

should these be unranked? @Gen

@strutheo yes it probably should be (possibly even unsubsidized, if someone else wants to consider that)

@Gen These are just bog-standard "resolves to %" markets but reskinned.

@strutheo is there an faq on different market types?

@Shump it's a really really good reskin though!

NA? :)
i think a few of us went hard because we thought it was counting toward ranked...

list of all them to unrank https://manifold.markets/browse?s=score&f=all&ct=ALL&topic=mnwpm

@GordanKnott what time do you normally close/resolve the market?

Each day I'm creating the market with what I think are two obvious choices. I don't want to influence the next word, but people seem reluctant to add answers....

Would you like me to add more? Are there alternative ways to to this?

@GordanKnott the chance of adding an answer late and having it be chosen over an existing one is small, so people probably arent eager to. presenting more options at the start sounds good

@GordanKnott Personally I think that your MNWPM markets have gotten popular enough that you could start the market with no options and let bettors add the first ones. I think it's fine to start it with sample answers, but starting with no answers would be a way to do it without influencing the outcome.

@Tumbles unfortunately the system requires at least 2 options to create a market. I have been toying with the idea of putting in two random words, but not many people are submitting words, and fewer options might have a negative impact. Maybe...?

@GordanKnott The system doesn't require 2 options to create a market. It defaults to two markets, but you can just close them out on the market creation page. I've created multiple markets within the last couple days that start with nothing but the default "other" option

@Tumbles ah, interesting. I will have a think about it. If I'd known that at the start I would've done that. My instinct now is to continue putting in two words to get the ball rolling.

@strutheo Indeed. Apparently I could also create a market with no options. Not sure what to do... Maybe just keep going with what has been working?

ShaiboughtṀ250 NO

Well played - the benefits of getting in early :)

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