Resolution according to CO2 measurements in ppm and the calculation of the annual mean (rounded up or down) from Global Monitoring Laboratory at Mauna Loa.
I will resolve to 529 if the market trades for more than a week at 529 (the upper end of the range) or to 480, if it trades for more than a week at 480 (the lower end of the range). I will then create a new market with a more appropriate range.
Graphs of historic CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa are here:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
The data for historic annual means are here:
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt
Similar markets:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,681 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,346 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Resolving based on this part of the description:
I will resolve to 529 if the market trades for more than a week at 529 (the upper end of the range) or to 480, if it trades for more than a week at 480 (the lower end of the range).
@mods does this resolve if it stays at 529 for a week like described? Since author is afk I would like to know if you would honour their last words. as stated below if you honour their last words in willing to create the next market with bigger ranges.
@JasonMendoza2008 it should be way higher anyway, I’m happy to leave my bet although this should resolve + new market
@mods If the self-resolving mechanic is honored, the market should be unranked like other self-resolving markets, I'd say.
@JasonMendoza2008 @4fa Well, the description is the description. I'll execute it.
But I personally think it's would be fine to leave it ranked because it seems to fit the vibes of being actually predictive. But don't take my word here as precedent for future rulings on rankedness.
So I was about to hit resolve, and then noticed some weird numbers. I want to make sure I don't ruin the economy if I resolve this. If you all would like to join me in the Discord chat for this, here's a link.
I'm surprised not more people are betting max (530). Going by this article, even under the RCP4.5 scenario (green line), the 2100 CO2 ends up at ~530, and there's plenty of scenarios where it's much higher.
