Resolution criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, prior to the market closing date, any sovereign national or subnational (e.g., state, provincial, or regional) government officially authorizes and deploys an artificial intelligence system that issues a legally binding judicial or administrative decision without requiring mandatory human review or human sign-off.

To qualify for Yes, credible public documentation—such as official government statutes, gazettes, court records, or reporting from major reputable news organizations citing primary documentation—must confirm that the AI system:

• Issued a final, legally enforceable order, ruling, criminal sentence, civil judgment, detention order, or equivalent administrative sanction.

• Made the decision autonomously, meaning human intervention was not required to validate, sign, or finalize the determination.

The market resolves to No if no such deployment occurs by the designated closing date, or if deployed systems are restricted to:

• Advisory, risk-assessment, or recommendation tools (e.g., recidivism scoring algorithms like COMPAS where a human judge retains final authority).

• Purely internal administrative routing, case management, or transcription.

• Non-binding pilot programs, sandboxes, or simulated trials.

• Private arbitration, corporate dispute resolution, or non-governmental ADR mechanisms.

Note: The market creator should set an explicit end date/cutoff if not already specified in the market settings.

Background

While algorithmic tools and generative AI are increasingly used in legal research, scheduling, and risk assessment (such as pretrial bail evaluation tools), legal frameworks internationally (including the EU Artificial Intelligence Act) classify AI in the administration of justice as "high-risk," generally mandating human oversight and human-in-the-loop validation. Experimental initiatives, such as "smart courts" in jurisdictions like China or automated traffic fine processors in several countries, routinely maintain that final adjudicative responsibility formally rests with a human magistrate or clerk.

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