Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation? | Manifold

Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?

Basic

7

Ṁ138

2031

68%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Anything as coincidental as these will count for a 100% resolution, while generic “pandemic preparedness” without similar timing/virus-type settles close to 0%.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

https://nypost.com/2022/05/28/monkeypox-simulation-in-2021-predicted-current-outbreak/amp/

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I'm assuming that there are enough pandemic preparedness simulations about things that are likely to become pandemics for this to be relatively likely.

predicts YES

(I don't think there's any sort of conspiracy here.)

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