AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2025?
Plus
22
Ṁ831Jan 1
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Weights
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Likely the most expensive model trained to date is PaLM, which cost ~$10-20M as per the analysis here: https://blog.heim.xyz/palm-training-cost/
Therefore this market is positing that (1) within the next 2yr a model 50-100x the price of the to-date most expensive model gets trained, and (2) the company that trained it open-sources that model.
#1 I could maybe see happening, but not #1 & #2 together
Related questions
Related questions
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025?
60% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?
38% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2025?
67% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2030?
69% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2028?
81% chance
AI: Will someone train a $100M model by 2025?
85% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2080?
62% chance
AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100?
57% chance