
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025?
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025?
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IIRC, stable diffusion was ~$0.5M, GPT3 maximum cost estimate was ~$5M, so $100M is a big jump to make in 3 years. Unless you count costs of failed training runs, but even then, $100M is a lot, especially as hardware gets more optimised for AI.
How do we evaluate $100 million for in the model?
Is it just compute cost or also labour cost?
How will we calculate the cost of the compute if it’s community trained through grid computing or equivalent “compute donation” mechanism instead of direct purchase?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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