Deepmind won a breakthrough prize for Alpha fold, it’s worth $3M and afaict usually goes towards very legible life science research.

I think this indicates that the discovery is ~Nobel prize worthy though idk exactly how the criteria differ between the two prizes. It seems like it’s at least drawn from a similar reference class.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Prize_in_Life_Sciences

AlphaFold may count—especially AF3 with interaction/binding prediction

Currently trades at 30-70% to win a Nobel: clearly resolves YES if stable at >95% or does win

Related:

https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/why-alphafold-wont-revolutionise-drug-discovery/4016051.article

I think protein folding should count, and it’s pretty plausible this market should have already resolved positive.

Could you make the resolution criteria more clear, explaining the ruling out the alpha fold progress so far would be helpful for me.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alphafold-developers-win-3-million-breakthrough-prize-in-life-sciences/

Did protein folding count or does it have to be bigger than that?