Will Twitter suffer a major outage before the end of Jan 2023? | Manifold Markets

closed Jan 31

Will Twitter suffer a major outage before the end of Jan 2023?

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if there's more than 1 hour of a major outage (Twitter's webiste has to be down and users unable to Tweet for that to be considered an outage.)

This market was created on Dec 29, 2022

Otherwise resolves NO.

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mukimame addictbought Ṁ5 of YES

Not sure if this counts as a major outage? (It seems to have lasted over an hour, and some users were unable to log in.) https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/twitter-suffers-second-outage-in-a-week-20230104-p5ca9q.html

mukimame addictis predicting YES at 5%

@mukimameaddict this shows a chart from Down Detector - it seems that the reports lasted at least a few hours. https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/technology/twitter-outage-detected-in-australia-website-and-app-incredibly-slow/news-story/60deef5077a7628c41d60aeaf4642a87

Danielis predicting NO at 35%

@mukimameaddict No, it's a localized outage.

Botal Tiscuit bought Ṁ10 NO at 6%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 6%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 NO at 7%

LA bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

KCS bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

KCS bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

David Johnston bought Ṁ50 NO from 10% to 9%

Cabal bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

Nostradamnedus bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ2 YES at 10%

ML bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 10%

Alex... bought Ṁ200 NO from 14% to 11%

Cramik bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Cramik bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Cramik bought Ṁ10 NO from 15% to 14%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ50 NO from 16% to 15%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 16%

clark overhiser bought Ṁ10 NO at 18%

Alex sold Ṁ11 YES from 20% to 18%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ40/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled)

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 NO from 26% to 21%

oh no bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

James bought Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 27%

Daniel filled limit order Ṁ65/Ṁ100 NO at 25% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 29% (cancelled)

Daniel filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 28%

Imuli sold Ṁ12 NO from 34% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Reality Quotient sold Ṁ32 YES from 38% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 38% (cancelled)

Nick bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled)

Alex bought Ṁ25 YES from 40% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 40% (cancelled)

Will Howard bought Ṁ50 NO from 46% to 39%

Mike bought Ṁ5 YES from 45% to 46%

Embedded Agent bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 43% (cancelled)

Dmitry Bushev bought Ṁ25 NO from 47% to 42%

Imuli bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 47%

Mizo bought Ṁ25 NO from 57% to 49%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 57% (cancelled)

Mizo bought Ṁ15 NO from 61% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 61% (cancelled)

mukimame addict sold Ṁ49 YES from 70% to 59%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 70% (cancelled)

Quentin Kniep bought Ṁ10 NO from 74% to 69%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ5 YES at 74% (cancelled)