Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?
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resolved Oct 31
Resolved
YES

The nominee, or, whoever comes closest to being nominee, that isn't Trump.

If they say repeatedly (more than once), without contradiction, that they will pardon Trump if they win, this resolves YES.

If they say it once, then when asked they deny it, etc., it will resolve NO. They need to unambiguously pledge to pardon Trump if they win.

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@JoshuaB Resolving YES based on this, I don't think Haley ever retracted these comments before dropping out.

@Gen resolves to N/A

I think this can resolve now that Haley has dropped out - although I don't know offhand if Haley ever promised such a thing.

predicted YES

Haley is now the frontrunner behind Trump right? Desantis dropped out a couple weeks ago

bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 74% to 80%

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/29/haley-pardon-trump-as-president

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said if she is elected president, she would pardon former President Trump if he's convicted of a crime, saying the amnesty would be "in the best interest of the country."
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Haley joins her fellow Republicans Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in signaling support for a possible pardon for Trump.
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What they're saying: "I would pardon Trump," Haley said.

predicted YES

@Gen could you confirm Haley is the current non-Trump frontrunner and (presuming she doesn't lose her place or backtrack on this statement) this will resolve positively?

predicted NO

@AndyMartin Haley is not the current non-Trump frontrunner but it qualifies if she doesn’t backtrack this statement

Desantis beats her barely in the polls, but I’ll wait until it’s obvious who is main contender and what their stance is before this resolves - it might be a while yet and a slow resolution

predicted YES

@Gen thanks for the clarification - that makes sense & sounds good

up to you whether to look at polls vs markets, but it seems worth mentioning that Haley has had 2-3x the odds of Desantis in the betting markets for some time now (13 vs 4.4 on https://electionbettingodds.com/, 9 vs 4 on https://manifold.markets/PC/who-will-be-the-republican-presiden-7bf11c066154, etc)

predicted NO

A similar market about other candidates appeasing/opposing Trump: /ClubmasterTransparent/will-nikki-haley-state-the-2020-ele

The only incentive I can see for any of them to do this is to see the writing on the wall that they will lose the nomination and then choose to suck up to get a spot in a future trump admin?

predicted NO

@AdamTreat Vivek declared at the debate he would do it, and asked for everyone to also pledge to pardon him

@Gen Right but this question isn’t just a stand in for will Vivek come in second I assume? We are trying to gauge how obsequious the other contenders are too I would think?

predicted NO

@AdamTreat Right. It’s about whether or not the main competitor thinks they can get a win without being a trumple

If trump drops, it’s probably more likely, too. His chosen champion would surely agree to pardon him

@Gen Yeah, it is hard to imagine a trumpie candidate winning the nomination without trump himself dropping out

They have to, otherwise they get clipped for that hand raise

It's the closest at the end right? So if say Vivek at some point is second in the polls but ends up third in delegate he wouldnt count?

@SebastianWorms Yeah resolution criteria too ambiguous

predicted NO

@SebastianWorms Whoever is his main competition at the end, yeah. If it consolidates to Vivek it will resolve YES. (Provided he doesn’t seriously retract before he spikes)

predicted NO

@Gen The questions really about if it ends up being “trump vs not trump” or “trump vs trump lite”

@Gen By delegate count? By poll? By endorsement? What if “not trump” for whole campaign and then ends up endorsing him? Like Ted Cruz last time?

predicted NO

@AdamTreat Endorsing trump isn’t enough, they have to be seriously campaigning still and say they will pardon him if they win

predicted NO

@AdamTreat Delegate count, polls, etc. Should all be aligned. I highly doubt there will be a 3 way race at the end

However, I’ve given it some thought.

Whoever has the highest peak support (other than trump) will be the one who counts. If someone competes to the end, after everyone else concedes, but desantis was at 30% and dropped out while trump maintained 60%, I would give it to desantis even if he’s not the last one to drop

predicted NO

Subsidised [m2000] now that the price action has settled a bit. Tell yo friends

Can you edit title so that it’s clear that Trump does not count for resolution? Something like “Will the non-Trump frontrunner 2024 GOP Presidential Nominee promise to pardon Trump if they win?"

predicted NO

@JoshuaB Good suggestion! I added [non-Trump] and changed "win" to "are elected", thanks

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