Chess: Will I hit 1500 rapid before 1300?
chance, my username is Genzy1

If my elo is ever >1499, resolves YES. If it goes <1301, resolves NO.

I play 10min rapid mostly. My other ratings:

1020 blitz

911 bullet

I spend 0 time reading theory, learning, etc. It's just pure entertainment when I play. I don't care if I lose.

I was 1450 for a while recently, peaked at 1472, though I'm less practiced than I was. I plan to keep playing and spend more time in the manifold chess group!

Get Ṁ600 play money
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I'm like you, bullet rating much lower than rapid rating

predicts YES

@AmmonLam my bullet is ~1070 now, I've been playing more 3mins and less 10mins

what becomes if this market if neither thing happens before the end of the year?

predicts YES

@shankypanky I will extend it now. I thought for sure I’d have made some progress but I’ve mostly been playing bullet!!

predicts YES

I reached 1301 like 10 days ago. On the up&up now tho 😂

there's a manifold chess group?

predicts YES

@georgeyw I was referring to what we now call the Chess Topic (formerly known as groups)

It would be cool to have a specific topic chat where we could discuss it though 🙏

@Gen maybe we should have a manifold discord blitz tournament with live betting :)

predicts YES


I was thinking something similar! If you have any ideas for how you think best to structure such an event, I'm happy to bankroll a prize pool

My goal would be to divide the prize more toward non-chess skill related things - whether that is different style games or prizes more for markets/betting, idk, but I'd rather it was possible for everyone to win something. Time handicap works too, but I have no idea how to work out what a fair timer would be (or how to efficiently set up games where one side has 30seconds vs 3 minutes, or whatever)

@Gen I think and lichess both have ways to give your opponent time after a game's started (maybe in fixed increments, like 15s or 30s), but I don't remember where in the UI that is. If my memory is correct on that though, you could start a game at the lower time control and have the handicapped player give a bunch of time to the other player.

There might be ways to do material odds too, though I'm less sure about that

@georgeyw I personally prefer lichess' UI