How many speakers at Manifest will create a market in the Manifest group?
13
resolved Sep 25
10-15
100%93%
16-20
0.5%
25+
0.2%
0-9
6%
21-24
0.2%

This refers to anyone listed on the Manifest Speakers page. This includes Manifold staff, existing users, etc.

I think there are currently 30 (29 tiles, Simone & Malcolm Collins counting for 2)

I will check & final count on the 25th of September for me, late 24th for USA. If anyone compiles the evidence and makes it easy for me, I'll provide a bounty (probably like M500)

Manipulation encouraged

Get Ṁ500 play money

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🏅 Top traders

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Shump avatar
Shumpbought Ṁ200 of 10-15 YES

Nate Silver: No. No account.
Robin Hanson: No. Hasn't created any questions
Tarek: No. No questions.
Shayne: No. No questions.
Scott: No questions related to Manifest
Dylan: Yes
Aella: No. This question is under "spicyfest"
Pratik: No questions
Destiny: No account
Katja: No Manifest questions
Cate: No questions
Byrne: Yes
Kevin: No questions
Ozzie: No Manifest questions
Emmet: No questions

Eliezer: Yes
Patrick: No Manifest questions
Douglass: No questions
Matthew: Yes
Gavriel: Yes
Richard: No Manifest questions
Jeremiah: No Manifest questions
Austin: Yes
James: No Manifest questions
Stephen: No questions
David: Yes
Saul: Yes
Daniel: Yes
Robert: No questions
Rational Animations: No questions about Manifest
Zvi: Yes
Misha: No Manifest questions
Collinses: No account

Total: 10

There's still a few hours left for this market, but Manifest is finished, and I doubt there will be 5 more speakers creating markets in the meantime

Edit: I missed that Aella's market was not tagged as Manifest, but I also found Austin's main account, which has a market, so still 10.

1 reply
Gen avatar
Genzy

@Shump ok i'm going based on this, if anyone else successfully refutes it they can have the bounty, otherwise M500 is yours if the resolution is not disputed for a day or 2

(if I forget, like this comment or otherwise remind me)