This refers to anyone listed on the Manifest Speakers page. This includes Manifold staff, existing users, etc.
I think there are currently 30 (29 tiles, Simone & Malcolm Collins counting for 2)
I will check & final count on the 25th of September for me, late 24th for USA. If anyone compiles the evidence and makes it easy for me, I'll provide a bounty (probably like M500)
Manipulation encouraged
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ254 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
Nate Silver: No. No account.
Robin Hanson: No. Hasn't created any questions
Tarek: No. No questions.
Shayne: No. No questions.
Scott: No questions related to Manifest
Dylan: Yes
Aella: No. This question is under "spicyfest"
Pratik: No questions
Destiny: No account
Katja: No Manifest questions
Cate: No questions
Byrne: Yes
Kevin: No questions
Ozzie: No Manifest questions
Emmet: No questions
Eliezer: Yes
Patrick: No Manifest questions
Douglass: No questions
Matthew: Yes
Gavriel: Yes
Richard: No Manifest questions
Jeremiah: No Manifest questions
Austin: Yes
James: No Manifest questions
Stephen: No questions
David: Yes
Saul: Yes
Daniel: Yes
Robert: No questions
Rational Animations: No questions about Manifest
Zvi: Yes
Misha: No Manifest questions
Collinses: No account
Total: 10
There's still a few hours left for this market, but Manifest is finished, and I doubt there will be 5 more speakers creating markets in the meantime
Edit: I missed that Aella's market was not tagged as Manifest, but I also found Austin's main account, which has a market, so still 10.
@Shump ok i'm going based on this, if anyone else successfully refutes it they can have the bounty, otherwise M500 is yours if the resolution is not disputed for a day or 2
(if I forget, like this comment or otherwise remind me)