With a ceasefire in place and agreements for Hamas to return the Israeli hostages, Will Trump’s peace efforts remain in effect? Will the IDF and Hamas stick to the agreements? Or will they start fighting again?
❗This will resolve as “YES” if the ceasefire remains unbroken for a month, but will end “NO” if at any point the ceasefire is broken❗️
Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if the ceasefire breaks down (as would be well reported in media), not necessarily for minor violations of the agreement.
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Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is determining whether too many serious violations have been made and Trump is not a reliable source. Please add your opinions. Shall we call it?
Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that Trump being the decider was not part of the actual market criteria - that was only added as a comment to another user. The market will resolve based on whether the ceasefire remains unbroken per the original description, not based on Trump's statements. The creator is evaluating whether the current violations constitute the ceasefire being "broken" under the criteria.
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‼️Thanks Everyone who gave me positive feedback. My market description was accurately described, which led to this decision. Quote on quote and as evident above “This will resolve as “YES” if the ceasefire remains unbroken for a month, “NO” if at any point the ceasefire is broken. I then went on to add that any minor violations would still result in “YES”.
Tonight, in the UK there are breaking headlines of serious breaches of the ceasefire. Netanyahu has carried out a massive deadly strike (killing at least18) on Gaza city, This breaks the terms of the ceasefire.
I believe, based upon my marketplace description, this was the right decision taken. Please, if you do not respect my outcomes without reading the description, please do not join in any of my other markets, as I strive for positive feedback.
Most importantly, my hearts go out to all of the victims and the grieving families. 🙏
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https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/liveblog/2025/10/28/live-israeli-attack-kills-2-in-gaza-as-hamas-returns-body-of-captive Deaths are increasing 💔💔💔This is no ceasefire peace deal. My heart is with the bereaved families and I hope we can keep all in our prayers 🙏
@Gemc I understood from one of your previous comments that media reporting the ceasfire as having broken down would be considered for the resolution. Have you seen it reported in this way? I think it would have made more sense to wait for it here.
@Arky Hi, that statement was made on Tuesday, but anyway, I have based my resolution on my marketplace description, as I should have. I wrote that “minor” violations would not count, but after the news tonight, this is MAJOR
@Gemc I've seen the recent violation and it being reported on. I have not seen it reported as the ceasefire being broken down.
@consnop It has been broken, It’s made the top story headlines. I think some may have misunderstood this, however, I gave a full description of the criteria. I mentioned that only “minor violations” would Not count
Hi @Gemc
I assume you keep your position of 19th October: "Trump created the terms so only he can confirm." and we have to wait for Trump evaluation of ceasefire status.
We've seen previous air strikes in the last couple of weeks who were not consired a ceasefire break by US
Israeli Strike Didn’t Violate Ceasefire, Rubio Says - Bloomberg
@Gemc I would say we should follow a consistent approach within the same market
Other markets restarted the counter with minor violations. Some markets keep the counter open until the ceasefire is declared permanently over
For your markets, I was assuming that if you keep it open after previous strikes with dozens of casualties that you would follow the same approach now
Lets wait
1) to see the actual strike
2) reactions and how it is reported when it comes to ceasefire status
Does it make sense?
Gaza ceasefire is holding, says US Vice President JD Vance
Vance added that 'little skirmishes' are expected here and there, but that he expects Trump's peace plan to hold despite them.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-871975
Lets wait and see what happens next.
@MiguelLM Vance is worse than Trump! Have you seen the latest? Israel has sent huge attacks on Gaza city killing people, it says Gaza will pay
@Gemc I’ve seen the latest attacks. It seems 5 people killed 😥
Hopefully they will stop
On 19th Oct they killled more people, then they stopped and the ceasefire continued
@MiguelLM I am not sure on this as with my description - This is not a minor violation and the question is - how many violations is too many? I only mentioned Trump being the decider as a matter of conversation, I did not include it in the description
@MiguelLM I am not sure on this as with my description - This is not a minor violation and the question is - how many violations is too many? I only mentioned Trump being the decider as a matter of conversation, I did not include it in the description
Hi @Gemc
Is the deadline November 10th?
As of Gaza war - Wikipedia "Ceasefire formally in effect since 10 October 2025"
@MiguelLM Hi, thanks for the question. I set the deadline a month after this question was created. This question will be resolved on November 16th, as stated.
@Stralor Most of my YES orders were gone in hours, and only about half of my NO is still remaining after <24h. I've put up another spread at 2, 5, and 10% off the current price
