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MANIFOLD
First overseas visit of the next UK PM? (Add your own)
4
Ṁ175Ṁ56
2027
20%
USA 🇺🇸
10%
France 🇫🇷
10%
EU country 🇪🇺 (excluding France)
22%
Ukraine 🇺🇦
18%
Israel 🇮🇱
10%
Middle East country (excluding Israel)
10%
Republic of Ireland 🇮🇪

Resolution criteria

  • This market will resolve to the category containing the country visited by the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on their first official overseas trip after taking office.

  • The "next Prime Minister" is defined as the person appointed by the Monarch to succeed Keir Starmer.

  • ❗️An "official overseas trip" is defined as travel outside the United Kingdom for official government business strictly set to bilateral meetings and state visits.❗️

  • ‼️International summits such as NATO, G7, UN or any other EU-related meetings DO NOT COUNT‼️

  • Crown Dependencies (Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey) and British Overseas Territories (e.g., Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia) do not count as foreign sovereign states.

  • If the Prime Minister's first trip is a multi-trip journey visiting multiple countries, the market will resolve to the first country where the PM lands.

Market context
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@Gemc also (please see my other comment even though I didn't ping you) what happens in this dependent market if the option category covering the country he visits doesn't exist? Will you be hurriedly adding the country as it is announced, thus avoiding the problem that not having the option to be Other exists? If we believe it is other, should we thus just wait for you to add the option?

This says add your own, but is a dependent market. I don't think you should add EU countries or Mid-East countries even if suggested, because of the dependent nature of this market and those have already been covered by the other than France and other than Israel.