Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the category containing the country visited by the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on their first official overseas trip after taking office.
The "next Prime Minister" is defined as the person appointed by the Monarch to succeed Keir Starmer.
❗️An "official overseas trip" is defined as travel outside the United Kingdom for official government business strictly set to bilateral meetings and state visits.❗️
‼️International summits such as NATO, G7, UN or any other EU-related meetings DO NOT COUNT‼️
Crown Dependencies (Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey) and British Overseas Territories (e.g., Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia) do not count as foreign sovereign states.
If the Prime Minister's first trip is a multi-trip journey visiting multiple countries, the market will resolve to the first country where the PM lands.
Update 2026-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The following country/region options are finalized:
Republic of Ireland (separated due to geographic location)
France (separated due to strong UK partnerships, e.g. Coalition of the Willing)
Israel (due to potential peacemaking role)
Ukraine (not yet an EU member)
‼️The EU option covers only EU member states, excluding Ireland and France which have their own spots.‼️
No further options will be added. Any country not covered by an existing option falls under "Other".
1,000@Gemc also (please see my other comment even though I didn't ping you) what happens in this dependent market if the option category covering the country he visits doesn't exist? Will you be hurriedly adding the country as it is announced, thus avoiding the problem that not having the option to be Other exists? If we believe it is other, should we thus just wait for you to add the option?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Hello and thank you! The title (add your own) was a mistake, which I have now corrected.
I have also corrected what you said on the first question. I have added “excluding Ireland” to the EU option. The EU option (European Union) is only for member states, not the whole of Europe.
I added Ukraine as it’s not yet a member of the EU.
I also made a few exceptions to make this market more specific.
I separated the Republic of Ireland due to its geographic location.
I separated France due to its strong partnerships with the UK (for example, its joint leadership of the Coalition of the Willing).
And then Israel, due to the possibility of the New PM taking up a role in peacemaking.
No Further options have been added, and none will be. If someone would like to bet on it being another country not covered, then their option would be “other”.
Thanks for the question. 🤝