Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?
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36
Ṁ5375
2026
7%
chance

Today, May 28, 2024, Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine.

Will Germany do the same within two years?

Resolution Criteria

1. Definition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state.

2. Source: Confirmation through credible sources such as official German government statements, major news outlets, or international diplomatic records.

3. Timing: Recognition must occur before May 29, 2026, German time.

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As a German I can ensure you that this probability is 0. It stays this way when changing the resolution time to the end of the century.

@Gideon37 Too bad you can't bet it down to 1% and redeem the loans. And I mean that sincerely; if you think it's much lower, too bad there aren't incentives for you to lock more mana up.

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