Donald Trump's 20-point proposal to end the war in Gaza proposes a temporary transitional governance structure overseen by a new international body that would include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
This market resolves YES if before July 1, 2026 Blair is officially a member of Gaza’s civil administration.
Merely being involved in meetings and press briefings without official membership resolves NO.
No such transitional governance structure being established resolves NA.
Authoritative confirmation may come from official announcements or major outlets (AP/Reuters/BBC/WSJ/Al Jazeera/Guardian/PBS).
Blair does not need to be a member of the Palestinian committee itself.
Blair must be an acting member of the governing structure, not merely a figurehead lending his name. Official membership is required for YES resolution.
Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a three-tier governance structure emerges (symbolic Board of Peace, executive committee, and Palestinian committee), membership in the executive committee would likely resolve YES, while being a mere symbolic member of the Board of Peace would likely resolve NO. The market is ultimately about whether Blair actively participates rather than just lending his name.
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Blair to serve on both the Gaza executive committee and the Board of peace. Respectively the 2nd and 3rd tier of temporary governance.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-official-dismisses-misleading-report-suggesting-blair-sidelined-from-board-of-peace/
If they would go for these two levels structure
the panel will be filled by current heads of state, who will play more symbolic roles while an intermediate level “executive committee” will be more closely involved in overseeing the management of Gaza.
Blair is poised to sit on that committee, along with top Trump aides Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, as well as former UN envoy for Mideast peace Nikolay Mladenov
will you still resolve YES? or does he need to get a seat in the more symbolic "Board of Peace" together with the heads of state?
@MiguelLM While I didn't foresee a third strata, if this media story turns out to be correct, membership in the "executive committee" would likely be the kind of thing that makes this market resolve YES, and being a mere symbolic member will likely resolve NO.
Like stated before, this market is ultimately about whether Blair actively participates or just lends his name.
This comments by PA increases my chances for YES
Does anyone have more up to date evidence in the opposite direction?
“Today I met with Mr. Tony Blair to discuss the day after the war and efforts aimed at making President Trump's plan which aims at stopping the war and establishing lasting peace in the region a success. We have confirmed our readiness to work with President Trump, Mr. Blair and the partners to consolidate the ceasefire, the entry of aid, the release of hostages and prisoners, and then start with the recovery and reconstruction.”
By Hussein Al-Sheikh, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s deputy
https://x.com/HusseinSheikhpl
The Palestinian Authority will meet Tony Blair on Sunday to discuss post-war Gaza
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/palestinian-authority-deputy-to-meet-with-tony-blair-sunday-to-discuss-post-war-gaza/
In Trump's plan Tony Blair was never supposed to be "a member of Gaza's civil administration", as in this market description. He is supposed to be part of a "international transitional body" that will supervise the Palestinian committee that will govern Gaza.
Just to confirm, will this market resolve YES if Blair is part of the planned international transitional body but not really "a member of Gaza's civil administration"?
"Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair."
(point 9 of Trump's plan)
@MiguelLM for the purpose of this market, the board supervising the transitional committee was considered part of the administration. It is this supervisory body he must be an official member of for a YES resolution
@GazDownright thanks for clarification. I was reading through the GITA proposal and if they move ahead with something similar to the current draft, I expect this will meet this market resolution criteria.
@MiguelLM Yes, that's probably a fair assessment. The distinction this market is trying to make is whether he is a member of the supervisory board, and not simply lending his name as a sort of figurehead.