MANIFOLD
Will Manifold win at hangman #3?
33
Ṁ1kṀ16k
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Manifold users guess all the letters of the word before making 6 mistakes on the following market:

Manifold plays hangman! #3 [1000M prize]

Resolves NO otherwise.

This market isn't linked to user's individual guesses on https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman-3-1000m-pri?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

  • Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Manipulation of the main hangman market is allowed in attempts to make this market resolve NO. However, the creator may resolve the main market at any time [around the announced time] without precise warning.

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Dumbest 2000 mana I have ever earned 😂

I would just like to mention that it is fully allowed to try to manipulate the main market to try to make this one resolve to NO, but probably not a good idea as you never know precisely when I'll resolve it.

@GastonKessler Wouldn't that incur huge losses by betting on incorrect letters?

@4fa maybe, but you would only have to manage to do this for one letter to make Manifold lose

read: place NO limit orders on bad letters for free mana

sold Ṁ282 YES

Man I did a real bad job reading rules in these markets. This doesn't resolve yes if someone adds the correct word as an answer to the correct answer market - only if all six letters are guessed in the main market. So it's down to the mighty/righty/nighty die roll. Oops. Fair play to the guy with the limit order at no 67%

@JTBooth wanna bet more on NO? I believe in us

opened a Ṁ2 NO at 67% order

@Bayesian

🤔

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 50% order

@4fa buy low sell high

@Bayesian I know, just looked funny in context.

@4fa 😭

@JTBooth btw if you wanna sell your shares i'll buy them and limit your slippage

bought Ṁ500 YES

We're already down to around 1200 words, depending on the dictionary, and we have four bad guesses left. The market has enough interest that I think there will be a lot of guessers once it's close.

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