Will Manifold win at hangman #3?
33
1kแน€16k
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Manifold users guess all the letters of the word before making 6 mistakes on the following market:

Manifold plays hangman! #3 [1000M prize]

Resolves NO otherwise.

This market isn't linked to user's individual guesses on https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman-3-1000m-pri?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg

  • Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Manipulation of the main hangman market is allowed in attempts to make this market resolve NO. However, the creator may resolve the main market at any time [around the announced time] without precise warning.

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Dumbest 2000 mana I have ever earned ๐Ÿ˜‚

I would just like to mention that it is fully allowed to try to manipulate the main market to try to make this one resolve to NO, but probably not a good idea as you never know precisely when I'll resolve it.

@GastonKessler Wouldn't that incur huge losses by betting on incorrect letters?

@4fa maybe, but you would only have to manage to do this for one letter to make Manifold lose

read: place NO limit orders on bad letters for free mana

sold แน€282 YES

Man I did a real bad job reading rules in these markets. This doesn't resolve yes if someone adds the correct word as an answer to the correct answer market - only if all six letters are guessed in the main market. So it's down to the mighty/righty/nighty die roll. Oops. Fair play to the guy with the limit order at no 67%

@JTBooth wanna bet more on NO? I believe in us

opened a แน€2 NO at 67% order

@Bayesian

๐Ÿค”

opened a แน€5,000 YES at 50% order

@4fa buy low sell high

@Bayesian I know, just looked funny in context.

@4fa ๐Ÿ˜ญ

@JTBooth btw if you wanna sell your shares i'll buy them and limit your slippage

bought แน€500 YES

We're already down to around 1200 words, depending on the dictionary, and we have four bad guesses left. The market has enough interest that I think there will be a lot of guessers once it's close.

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