Word:mighty ๐
Incorrect guesses: 5/6:
E,A,O,S,L
The banner art might not be up to date!
Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.
Resolution Criteria
Every day, at ~8am UTC+1 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.
Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.
I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.
The game concludes when either:
The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)
The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)
Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.
If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.
Considerations
The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).
I obviously won't bet on this market.
I have chosen the word, it isn't necessarily chosen at random (although I might have).
The MD5 hash obtained when combining the word and an unknown string of characters that I will resolve at the end of this market is:
177bd3561b36f438a278699164ef9896
Linked markets:
Will Manifold in at hangman #3?
Who will in at hangman #3? [1000M prize]
Manifold plays hangman #3 profitable?
ALL AI COMMENTS BELOW AREN'T CONFIRMED INFORMATIONS/RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the game is lost before the word is guessed, the creator may close the "what's the winning word" market without resolving it to allow continued play for fun before revealing the word.
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will only extend the market duration if they believe it will be at least as profitable AND fun as not doing so. The decision will consider both trader bonuses (potential gain) and liquidity returns (potential loss from revealing more information).
Update 2025-11-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The MD5 hash is generated by combining the hidden word with [relatively] coherent sentences in English, German, or French (not arbitrary random characters).
Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution time of ~8am UTC+1 (corrected from UTC+2 due to winter time) is approximate. The creator may resolve at varying times to avoid market manipulation through timing of large bets. The timing of resolutions does not affect outcomes, as letters resolve based solely on whether they appear in the word.
Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator resolves the letter the first time they check the market in the morning (unless it's significantly too early), rather than using a script to calculate highest average percentage. The ~8am UTC+1 timing is approximate and intentionally imprecise to avoid market manipulation through timing of large bets.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน691 | |
| 2 | แน629 | |
| 3 | แน246 | |
| 4 | แน216 | |
| 5 | แน176 |
@GastonKessler Amusingly this means that - taking for granted that M will be the next letter guessed - you can arbitrage "M" against "Will Manifold win at hangman #3?"
Of course, the plan fails if someone bids up a different letter at the last minute...
I am stupid nevermind
@121 https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/who-will-win-at-hangman-3-1000m-pri?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg (if others have the same question)
my skill issue no one cares no one asked
@121 I understand that you aren't happy about it, I have to be honest made a mistake: I should have said utc+1, I forgot to take the change to winter time into account. However, the timing of resolutions doesn't affect traders much, as the letter's resolutions are only based off of whether they are in the word or not. The ~ is precisely there to say that you can't rely on me resolving precisely at that time, which is both due to the fact that I can't promise 100% reliability and meant to avoid market manipulation by timing big bets right before resolution.
@121 If you wanted a clearer definition of ~, you could have asked for one, but ~ means (at least to me) that it's not a precise and reliable figure.
@GastonKessler Clearer resolution criteria would be appreciated, like "Highest average percentage in last 24 hours." and fix the closing time every 8am utc+1, this percentage can be calculated using a script. This is a way better solution for market sniping.
@121 I have never said that my criteria couldn't be improved and am always open to constructive criticism, I just don't think these issues are bad to the point of requiring mods to NA this question
@121 I don't have the time or the skill to code such a script and don't want to completely block all possibilities for market sniping. As for the convenient timing issue, I resolve the letter the forst time I check this market in the morning (unless it's significantly to early). I know I have no way to prove my honesty, but that is also true for a lot of other creators on a lot of other markets. If this market doesn't have the level of professionalism you want, you can always not bet on it.
@SavioMak You might want to check the Holders tab:
I haven't figured out why the profit displayed below the market is different from the one in the Holders tab. In my case, the profit displayed below the market is lower than in the Holders tab.
would be very funny to not have the MD5 hash and update the word to be the one that fits the probabilities the least a la hateris (don't do this)
@brubsby That may be fun, but very cahotic as letters' expected probabilities would influence their actual probabilities...
@GastonKessler I was very suspicious of the MD5 hash + random letters since you can very easily make collisions with that setup.
@GastonKessler The chosen prefix attack for MD5 has been possible since ~2007: https://marc-stevens.nl/research/hashclash/
Use sha2 or sha3
@AshDorsey well this wouldn't happen randomly (or at least it's extremely unlikely). It's far beyond my extremely basic highschool level in informatics and the letters aren't random
@GastonKessler Yes, but the point of the hash is to prove you're not doing any funny businesses, but using MD5 doesn't accomplish that goal.
@AshDorsey it does, because it wouldn't be possible to find two different sets of coherent sentences that, with two coherent words would give the same hash
@GastonKessler all you said was "unknown"! i interpreted that as random, but if it's a sentence then yes it's very difficult i assume to find a hash collision.
@AshDorsey or if it is... why would I spend hours and idk how much computing power to be able to switch between two words to gain minimal advantage from increased liquidity returns/trader bonuses
@AshDorsey If I really wanted to make some mana here, it would probably be through collusion instead of collision (by telling the word to someone else in advance and have them pay me in some hidden way on some other random market)
@GastonKessler I didn't think you were switching words, if I thought so I wouldn't be trading, but if it was arbitrary characters I believe it would only take a few seconds
@GastonKessler which I wouldn't do, because I don't like cheating and doing it for a minimal amount of play money at the risk of being banned would be especially dumb
@AshDorsey well thanks for the info, I'll clarify that I'm using more or less coherent sentences in English, German or French from now on.
@GastonKessler as far as humanity knows, reversing sha2 is impossible so you could just add a sha2 hash