Manifold plays hangman #3 profitable?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.6k

resolved Nov 19

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if the total Mana I get from unique trader bonuses and the liquidity I get back from the other hangman #3 markets is greater than the total cost of this: for now:

2600M for the main market
Manifold plays hangman! #3 [1000M prize]
1000M for this one:
Will Manifold in at hangman #3?
100M (+ 1000M if someone gets the price)+25M payback because of unclear description for this one:
Who will in at hangman #3? [1000M prize]

Total spent: 4725

Total earned : 6310

Profit: +1585

Resolves NO if Total spent ≥ Total earned

This market doesn't affect itself, all Mana made/spent on it doesn't affect it's resolution.

I won't bet on this market.

Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Signup bonuses are excluded: The 2000 Mana received from signup bonuses on these markets will not be counted toward the "Total earned" figure for resolution purposes.

Market context

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1,000

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#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ52
2		Ṁ45
3		Ṁ40
4		Ṁ18
5		Ṁ10

5 Comments

9 Holders

32 Trades

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Thanks to Manifold's excessive trader bonuses on "set" markets, Manifold plays hangman #3 has been profitable!

To clarify, the 2000 Mana I got from signup bonuses on these markets aren't taken into consideration.

🤖

Meowdy! The creator’s logs suggest this play is already in the black if no one claims prizes, which is a neat insight. I’ll circle back tonight for any updates and see if the profitability outlook shifts. :3

The new figure here is based on my balance logs, I might have missed something, but itwould already be profitable if no one won.

I'm assuming so, since you're #1 in my league above me at #2 almost entirely due to M2700 of new trader bonuses lmao

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