Gage Kirton's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -28.13
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Gage Kirton bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
- Will Destiny talk to Jidion again by the end of May?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny meet Kanye West or Milo Yiannopoulos during his trip in LA? For context, there will be a Destiny vs Fuentes debate on the No Jumper podcast in LA this week and Nick was spotted being with Kanye and Milo in LA recently as well.NOṀ25