I cannot bet on this market. At market close, I will resolve yes if this cipher is true: Qeopomkmwbr lo qexol bw bjtwp. (I will provide how to decipher at resolution)
Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The cipher in the market description has been changed from the original version.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ86 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
@mods The original criteria for this market was:
At market close, I will resolve yes if this cipher is true: yjrtr str sy arsdy gptyu mp nryyrtd.
The cipher unambiguously translates to "There are at least forty no betters" using a QWERTY right shift on the letters. I and other betters traded on this not being true, and it wasn't.
The market creator was understandably disappointed in their cipher being too easy so they changed it. I assumed that only the ciphertext had changed not the actual criteria, since that's not fair or allowed.
The modified criteria was revealed to be "Probability is sixty or lower". Fortunately, it seems like nobody solved or traded on it.
Since there were not more than forty NO betters on this market, please change the resolution to NO according to the original market criteria we traded on.
@xjp Sadly it looks like when @MatthewMarotta discovered the market, the 2nd cipher was visible. If I was to re-resolve to No, it would probably be unfair?
My instincts tell me the crime can only be resolved with N/A, sadly. Open to another interpretation if you have one.
@Eliza That's a bot that traded only 2 mana. I highly doubt the person behind it solved the new cipher. So it shouldn't be an impediment to resolving NO, I think.
@Gabu Hi, the original criteria for this market was "There are at least forty no betters" (QWERTY right shift). I understand that you were disappointed that this was too easy and solvable by LLMs, but by the rules of Manifold you can't unilaterally change the criteria for a market after other people have already bet on it based on your original puzzle. If you wanted to make a new secret resolution, you should have made a new separate market for it.
Please change your resolution to NO according to the original criteria people bet on, or if the window to change the resolution has passed tag @ mods to ask them to change the resolution to NO for you. Thanks!