Political commentators have repeatedly suggested that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, he would make the US military not help if Russia were to invade a NATO member. Will that occur?

Resolves to either Trump/Not Trump for the 2024 presidential election winner, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025. Resolves based on Russia seriously invading a NATO member. This should be at least on the scale of the 2014 Crimean war, not just a missile accidentally being shot or one plane passing over borders.

• Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion Scale Clarification:

  • An incursion or seizure of even a limited part of a NATO member’s territory (for example, a small part of Latvia) will resolve as a yes if it is on a scale comparable to significant military actions (such as the 2014 Crimean war or, as noted, an incursion similar to Ukraine’s invasion into the Kursk region).