What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of 2024-W08?
What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of 2024-W08?
17
820Ṁ1619
resolved Mar 2
50%5%
Nothing particularly dramatic
50%46%
Tumbles rollercoaster, almost retires (loans work how!? Tumbles out 100k all along!? It's so joever... Oh it's just a UI bug)
0.8%
Introducing colors for markets
34%
@Gabrielle ending an argument by offering to donate to offset the carbon used by AI generated banners
10%
Aella’s birthday gangbang
4%Other

February 19-February 25

What will be the most dramatic event on Manifold of the eighth week of 2024?

Resolves to the results of a poll held starting after the week ends. A tie will resolve equally to all the tied answers.

Anyone can add more answers. Any answers that are clearly trolling will not be polled. Overlapping answers are allowed if they are significantly different.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ26
2Ṁ12
3Ṁ5
4Ṁ1
5Ṁ0


Sort by:
1y

The poll ended in a tie! Wow!

1y

This closed 12 minutes ago but I was about to add Aella’s gangbang and the associated markets.

1y

@snazzlePop I've re-opened it for another day. Not sure this makes sense, but I'll be nice here. 😃

1y

wait does it count as "on Manifold" if it's something that happens in the Manifold discord or is it only things that happen on the site itself?

1y

@goblinodds It can be on the Discord or on the site, or anything else that seems reasonable to say is Manifold related. Manifest or Bet on Love could definitely count! They all get polled at the end, so it's up to whoever answers the poll.

1y

@Gabrielle nice ok >:)

1y

@goblinodds Oh, and I reserve the right to ignore attempts at manipulating the poll, such as by registering new users, but I'll be really lenient about this. If there's an option about Destiny and the poll gets advertised on Destiny's stream, that's totally fine.

1y

i cant even tell what is happening week to week, maybe these should be monthly

bought Ṁ10 YES1y

@strutheo yeah agreed hahaha

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules