I expect to be happier in the possibility space where Trump wins in 2024 than Harris. To reduce this differential, I'm committed to donate $1100 to charity IFF Trump wins. This will be in addition to my regular charity budget. IFF Harris wins, I will reduce my charity budget by $1000. This is effectively a $1000 transfer of wealth from the charity fund in possibility space where Trump wins to the charity fund possibility space where Harris wins, with a $100 fee to account for my fallibility.
This market is designed to create a semi-public commitment and to have people bug me about it after the election. Please use shame and encouragement to make me follow through. Market resolves YES if Kamala wins.
Edit: Bumping my commitment to $8800. I will still resolve this market YES if I only donate $1100, but I encourage you to shame me if I don't donate the full $8800.
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A few questions:
Why would you be happier if Trump wins?
Why have you promised to donate more if he wins, what does 'reduce this differential' mean here?
Which charities are you planning to donate to and why?
I'm donating an expected value of $1100*50%*90% =500 but with the entire liability occurring in the possibility space where Trump wins. Trump space is roughly the size of Kamala space, so that's why I'm multiplying by 50%. The 90% multiplier is my estimate that i don't follow through with my commitment.
@TheAllMemeingEye
A) After 10/7, I no longer see the 2020 BLM riots as anomaly. The boomer Dems are still able to keep the "kill white people" Zoomers in check, but the cracks are showing
B) "reduce the differential" means reduce the difference in happiness I feel in worlds where Trump wins as where Kamala wins. This would also reduce my election nervousness.
C) I'm between charities right now. I was sending money to MIRI, then to an individual I've since lost confidence in, and now I've got about $13k I don't know what do with. I was planning to donate it to a Pause-AI charity but I haven't done research on what's the best one so I'm just letting the money pool in my charity envelope.
Thanks for explaining.
Other than pariah extremist groups like the Black Hammer Party, are there any actual instances of political groups unironically calling for white genocide? I suspect the VAST majority of zoomers, myself included, are strongly opposed to any genocide.
Regarding AI-safety organisations, the best resources on which are best are probably:
Founders Pledge https://www.founderspledge.com/recommendations/topic/artificial-intelligence
Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence
Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Centre for Long-Term Resilience
FAR AI
Effective Institutions Project's work on AI governance
Institute for Law and AI
Horizon Institute for Public Service
Giving What We Can https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/donate/organizations#reducing-global-catastrophic-risks
Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence
Centre for the Governance of AI
Center on Long-Term Risk