I expect to be happier in the possibility space where Trump wins in 2024 than Harris. To reduce this differential, I'm committed to donate $1100 to charity IFF Trump wins. This will be in addition to my regular charity budget. IFF Harris wins, I will reduce my charity budget by $1000. This is effectively a $1000 transfer of wealth from the charity fund in possibility space where Trump wins to the charity fund possibility space where Harris wins, with a $100 fee to account for my fallibility.

This market is designed to create a semi-public commitment and to have people bug me about it after the election. Please use shame and encouragement to make me follow through. Market resolves YES if Kamala wins.

Edit: Bumping my commitment to $8800. I will still resolve this market YES if I only donate $1100, but I encourage you to shame me if I don't donate the full $8800.