Will Democrats keep the presidency AND have a net gain in Congress?
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Dec 2
40%
chance

Resolves YES if Democrats keep the presidency AND percentage_of_senate_are_Democrats + percentage_of_house_are_Democrats is higher after the 2024 elections than before. Independents who caucus with the Democrats will be considered Democrats.

Resolves NO if Democrats lose the presidency.
Resolves NO if percentage_of_senate_are_Democrats + percentage_of_house_are_Democrats is the same or lower after the 2024 election as before.

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I'm confused how this is calculated. Can you give an example?

So currently, Democrats have 212 seats in Congress out of 432 filled seats, giving them 49% of the House. (There are currently 3 vacant seats in the house that I'm not including in this calculation) They also control 51 out of 100 Senate seats, or 51%. So 49+51 = 100

So let's say Democrats lose 10 seats in the house but gain 5 seats in the senate. And the 3 vacant house seats get filled. In that case, Democrats would have (212-10)/435 or 46.4% of the house. They would also have (51+5)/100 or 56% of the senate. So Democrats would have 46.4+56 = 102.4, giving them a net gain.

Another way to think of it is "Will the Democrats gain seats in Congress, counting Senate seats as 4.35 house seats and adjusting for slots being left vacant."