Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office?
326
2.5K
2.2K
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
NO

Doesn't have to win, or even get any votes. But someone has to nominate him.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ3,489
2Ṁ762
3Ṁ661
4Ṁ565
5Ṁ418
Sort by:
predicted YES

Obviously, this position should still be open. If either Mr. Jordan or Mr. Jeffries is not elected, another member, possibly Mr. McCarthy, will need to win, and even though you don't need to be nominated to win, it is definitely a likely path.

bought Ṁ7,000 of NO

just to be super clear: if there are no more votes today this resolves no right?

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry Should be!

predicted NO

@dittopoop i've learned to be very careful regarding resolution criteria on this website

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry Frederick made it explicit that he would only include first day of voting (today)

@SemioticRivalry Yes, it will resolve tonight. If there are no more votes until tomorrow, it is a NO, since he wasn't nominated.

@dittopoop You can call me Fred!

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris It seems unreasonable that you're ending this even though the speaker election is ongoing.

During the last speaker elections, different members were being nominated on later ballots, and it was unclear from the description that you would only count the first day.

Is there more detail I'm missing, because it seems this question should not resolve from what was offered in the description?

@houstonEuler What you're saying is valid, but I'm committed in the comments, as part of the extension of the end date of this market, to count the first day of voting only.

I wrongly assumed this would be wrapped up more quickly, and that the Rs had a plan in place as part of ousting McCarthy. Hence I didn't write much of a description, but I can't change the written commitments I made in the comments when I first extended the close date of this market.

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris Next time, please edit the description, because it's very unclear when the market is set to close on "October 23rd."

A simple updated of the description would have cleared up the ambiguity, but instead we're expected to rely a comment that was buried under 100 others.



predicted YES

@dittopoop I wish that explicit deadline would have been in the description and not in a comment or somewhere else because I sure didn’t see that.

predicted YES

@FrederickNorris the main body should be updated if the resolution criteria are clarified. Who has time to read every comment on every market they bet on?

bought Ṁ22 of NO

There is a non-zero chance that this was the only vote of the day and the GOP is gonna spend the rest of the day in internal deliberations

No dice.

predicted NO

@MarkHamill CHECK THOSE DICE AGAIN

predicted YES

He received votes, so resolve YES?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@KarlBrineDoyle He wasnt nominated. But he still could be.

predicted YES

If this vote fails someone else is gonna need to be nominated next round...

bought Ṁ1,665 of NO

only Jeffries and Jordan were nominated. This can be resolved as NO

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@dittopoop Need to wait for the election. He could be nominated on a subsequent ballot.

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris

"But after the first vote, that's it."

bought Ṁ66 of NO

@dittopoop Yes, the market will close today "has to happen on the first day of voting". No more extensions. He can still be nominated today.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@FrederickNorris in the future, super useful for that to be in the description lol

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry I didn't anticipate how long this would be drawn out in crafting the question, and that's on me.

predicted NO

so if McCarthy is nominated in a hypothetical second vote today, market would resolve as YES? Doesn't this go against your original statement that "after the first vote occurs, that's it?"

predicted NO

@dittopoop This was a discussion about extending the close date. I specifically mentioned the first day of voting in the screenshot.