Will there be more candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names in the 2024 Brazilian elections compared to 2020?

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resolved Oct 31

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Brazil's municipal elections are held every four years to elect mayors, deputy mayors, and city councilors.

In the 2020 municipal elections, 78 candidates included 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names, with only 1 being elected.

This prediction market seeks to determine if the 2024 municipal elections will see an increase in the number of candidates adopting 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names.

It is worth noting that Brazilian election rules permit candidates to select distinctive names for the ballot, which can incorporate the names of prominent politicians or public figures

Brazil

Bolsonaro

2024 Brazilian municipal elections

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Total candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in name (2024): 54
Total candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in name (2020): 86

bought Ṁ200 NO

import zipfile
import pandas as pd
from io import BytesIO

def count_bolsonaro_candidates(zip_path):
   """
   Lists and counts candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their names from all CSVs in a zip,
   excluding the BRASIL.csv file to avoid double counting.
   """
   total_count = 0
   
   with zipfile.ZipFile(zip_path) as zf:
       csv_files = [f for f in zf.namelist() 
                   if f.endswith('.csv') and 'BRASIL' not in f]
       
       for csv_file in csv_files:
           with zf.open(csv_file) as file:
               df = pd.read_csv(BytesIO(file.read()), 
                              encoding='latin-1', 
                              sep=';')
               
               bolsonaro_candidates = df[df['NM_URNA_CANDIDATO'].str.contains('BOLSONARO', 
                                                                             case=False, 
                                                                             na=False)]
               count = len(bolsonaro_candidates)
               
               if count > 0:
                   print(f"\n- {csv_file}: {count} candidates:")
                   for _, candidate in bolsonaro_candidates.iterrows():
                       print(f"  • {candidate['NM_URNA_CANDIDATO']}")
               else:
                   print(f"\n- {csv_file}: {count} candidates")
               
               total_count += count
               
   return total_count

zip_files = {
   2020: 'consulta_cand_2020.zip',  # from https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/consulta_cand/consulta_cand_2020.zip
   2024: 'consulta_cand_2024.zip'   # from https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/consulta_cand/consulta_cand_2024.zip
}

for year, zip_path in zip_files.items():
   print(f"\nProcessing {year} election data:")
   count = count_bolsonaro_candidates(zip_path)
   print(f"\nTotal candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in name ({year}): {count}")