
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2100?
9
Ṁ150Ṁ508resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
What exactly are the resolution criteria for this market? The "conditional on" phrasing (since we are predicting P(end by 2100|universe is a simulation)) makes me think NA if universe is not a simulation, YES if it is and ends by 2100, and NO otherwise. Is this correct?
How will it be resolved if, as I believe, this is an unfalsifiable hypothesis?
People are also trading
Related questions
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
68% chance
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, is outer universe a simulation as well?
72% chance
Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?
34% chance
Will we have proof that we live in a simulation in the next three years? (before 2028)
3% chance
Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?
53% chance
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
75% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
86% chance
Will physicists consider the universe locally-realistic in 2045?
28% chance
Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?
15% chance
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
12% chance